The Middle East Looks Ahead: 2010 Predictions
The Media Line Staff http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7017362045#ixzz0aowoQUTs
Wajiha Al-Huwaidar - Saudi women's rights advocate "Over the coming year I think women will get the right to drive and start driving cars in Saudi, of course with certain restrictions. I also predict we will have another woman as a minister and a new law will end child marriages. As for female education, physical education will be introduced in government schools and we'll start to see sport clubs for women. In the political arena, I think Prince Khalid al Faisal [governor of Makkah Province] will take on a very important position in the government. He will play a crucial role in bringing real reforms to the Kingdom. Maybe all that is more of a wish list, but let's just call it a prediction (she said laughing). The point is I see some serious changes coming to Saudi over the coming year."
Dr Mehrdad Khonsari - Senior Research Consultant, Centre for Arab and Iranian Studies "I think there is going to be a major internal change in Iran, if not in the next year certainly in the next few years. If that takes place, as I think it is bound to, it will affect the entire region in a very positive way."
Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi-Lecturer at the University of Tehran, Iran "Afghanistan is going to be big, both globally and as a domestic issue in Iran. The Americans are going to have a lot of trouble there, and just like Iraq a few years ago, I imagine that accusations from the U.S. on Iranian involvement in Afghanistan will gradually increase and cause a lot of tension between the two countries."
Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi - Founder of Barjeel Securities and based in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates "The five northern emirates of the UAE will be directly affected by any slow down in Dubai. Traditionally any projects launched in Dubai would have a direct positive impact on the northern emirates to varying degrees. Sharjah, Ajman and Um Al Qaiwain, served as less expensive lodging destinations for the latter's booming expat community. Ras Al Khaima and Fujairah, greatly benefited from a tourist influx because of their strategic and remote locations. So there is no doubt that Dubai's boom for the past decade has greatly benefited the entire country and that many of these emirates' inhabitants will be hoping that Dubai will be able to overcome the current financial crisis soon."
Yadullah Ijtehadi - Managing Editor, Zawya, a MidEast business news source Anyone who writes off Dubai, does so at their own peril. The city has never had much oil, but has always had lots of gumption. If Dubai can pacify investors over its various debt challenges, then the emirate can certainly benefit in the long run. For all its issues, the city has the region's best infrastructure; it remains the best city in the Middle East to live in. However, other cities such as Abu Dhabi and Doha are fast catching up and Dubai's advantage may not remain for long... Abu Dhabi is intent on making its mark and coming out of Dubai's shadows. Some might say it already has with the launch of the Yas Island Grand Prix circuit which spectacularly hosted Formula 1 to worldwide acclaim. Its purchase of high profile assets such as Manchester City Football Club also shows that the emirate is keen to announce itself to the world. Don't expect that to change anytime soon as long as oil prices hover well over $75 a barrel."
John Norris - Executive Director, Enough, the project to end genocide and crimes against humanity "Clearly, 2010 is a 'make or break' year for Sudan. I don't think we'll see a lasting resolution to the conflict in Darfur but what we will see in 2010 is whether the likelihood of the country splitting in two will be peaceful and well managed or whether it will be accompanied by wholesale bloodshed... This is going to be a seismic change. It will involve redrawing the borders and will involve wholesale movements of populations. So I think the north-south conflict will eclipse the situation in Darfur. Both sides are arming themselves and both sides seem to be preparing for war. Hopefully, the international community and the parties will get their act together. If not, Sudan will be in the headlines in an unfortunate way in 2010."
Richard Cornwell - Independent consultant and former fellow at the Institute for Security Studies "What we will see in Somalia is more or less violence. But it's highly unlikely that Al-Shabaab will stick together as an organization, never mind take over the country. We tend to have a very Western idea of what a state is, instead of understanding that the concept 'state' covers a very wide menagerie. To talk about some African states as failed is like saying that a dog is a failed horse. So Somalia is facing a long and protracted process and the Somalis are consistently able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A lot will depend on how the clans settle their problems, whether or not the Darood and Hawiye sit at the same table. Somalia will be impacted by how the international community, in particular the Americans and the Ethiopians, react to things. As unlikely as it seems, rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia would have a very strong effect on the future of Somalia."
Dr Eckart Woertz - Program Manager Economics, Gulf Research Center in Dubai, United Arab Emirates Not everything is doom and gloom, there are some well positioned companies like DUBAL and Emirates Airlines and I think Dubai will recover. If Dubai cuts back decisively on debt and ill fated real estate investments and refrains from leveraged foreign acquisitions, then it will reemerge. Abu Dhabi will meanwhile continue to diversify its economy with petrochemicals, heavy industries and tourism."
Dr Jack Kalpakian - Political Expert, Al-Akhawayn University in Ifrane, Morocco. "Unfortunately, there is going to be a lot more tension in the relations between Algeria and Morocco in the dispute over Western Sahara. Both sides have upped the ante discursively and are engaging in a small arms race. So I'd be very surprised if there is something resolved in 2010 because the discourse is getting harder on both sides and that's always a bad sign. On the domestic front in Algeria I think we will see many more attempts at using foreign policy to unite the country and as a way to create an Algerian body politic that can stand up to Morocco and Al-Qa'ida in Algeria. In Morocco I expect to see a period in which there is a stocktaking of the reform program and maybe even some consolidation - three steps forward and one step backwards. Some will see it as regression but it won't necessarily be so."
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